Geoeconomic Pressure

New paper on using Artificial Intelligence to measure the effect of tariffs, export controls, and sanctions on firms. Geoeconomic pressure—the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends—has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of geoeconomic pressure from large textual corpora. We analyze the ongoing trade war and update the draft at high frequency.

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Matteo Maggiori
The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power

We have prepared a new paper for the 2025 AEA Papers and Proceedings, “The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power.” Great powers are increasingly using their economic and financial strength for geopolitical aims.  This rise of "geoeconomics" has the potential to reshape the international trade and financial system. This paper examines the role of domestic political economy forces in determining a government's ability to project geoeconomic power abroad. We also discuss the role that persuading or coercing foreign governments plays in projecting geoeconomic power around the world.

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Hannah Firestone
Matteo Maggiori awarded 2024 Banque de France/TSE Junior Prize for Money and Macroeconomics

The Banque de France and the Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) awarded the 2024 Junior Prize for Money and Macroeconomics to our Co-Director Matteo Maggiori in recognition of his work on capital flows, the determinants of international currencies and their role in financial integration.

To learn more, watch the full award ceremony or view the press release or detailed appendix.

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Hannah Firestone