research briefs
Here we post briefs that summarize for the general audience our research results, updated estimates, and policy-relevant conclusions.
GeoeconomiC Pressure
Christopher Clayton, Antonio Coppola, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger – May 2025
Our new paper “Geoeconomic Pressure” leverages recent advances in large language models (LLMs) to identify the areas of the global economy that are particularly vulnerable to geoeconomic pressure and examine how targeted entities respond.
We provide an interactive and frequently updated version of the results and data from this paper on the GCAP Data Hub. Visit the Geoeconomic Monitor to track firms reporting being affected by various types of geoeconomic pressure.
Economic Coercion and Fragmentation
Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger – December 2024
Our new paper “A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation” explains how anti-coercion policies, enacted to counteract demands from hegemonic powers like the United States and China, operate at an individual country level and impact the global economy at large.
Selected media coverage: Il Sole 24 Ore (English) | Financial Times (1) | Financial Times (2) | Corriere della Sera | Financial Times (3)
The State of Financial Integration in the Euro Area
Roland Beck, Antonio Coppola, Angus Lewis, Matteo Maggiori, Martin Schmitz, Jesse Schreger – May 2024
Our new paper “The Geography of Capital Allocation in the Euro Area” provides a new assessment of the financial risk exposures and of the state of financial integration within the Euro Area.
Full ECB report on Financial Integration and Structure in the Euro Area
A FRAMEWORK FOR GEOECONOMICS
Christopher Clayton, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger – January 2024
The Global Capital Allocation Project has released a new paper “A Framework for Geoeconomics” that analyzes how countries build and yield geoeconomic power.
Internationalizing like china
Christopher Clayton, Amanda Dos Santos, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger – January 2023
We investigate the foreign holdings of Renminbi bonds and provide a theoretical framework to understand China's strategy to internationalize its currency.
Selected media coverage: Bloomberg | The Economist | Business Insider | Bloomberg
NEW estimates of global capital allocation, 2018-20
Antonio Coppola, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger, Angus Lewis, Ziwen Sun, Serdil Tinda – December 2022
The Global Capital Allocation Project has released updated estimates of global portfolio positions, including unwinding positions in tax havens that otherwise obfuscate the true underlying economic relationships. The new estimates cover the years 2018-20.
Selected media coverage: The Economist | Financial Times | Bloomberg | Financial Times, Alphaville | The Wire China | Il Sole 24 Ore (1) | Il Sole 24 Ore (2) | NBER Digest