Matteo Maggiori gave a lunchtime plenary on Geoeconomics at The Econometric Society 2025 World Congress in Seoul. Slides from the session are available here.
We are organizing the third annual GCAP conference on international economics and finance, to take place in person at Columbia University in New York on October 17. For more information, see the call for papers.
The program of the International Economics and Geopolitics workshop at the NBER summer institute is out. Meeting will be live streamed. Organized by GCAP co-directors Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger.
GCAP and the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Initiative will hold a JIE-GCAP-BGS Conference on Geoeconomics at Stanford GSB on February 27-28, 2026. See the call for papers.
Organized by Jesse Schreger (Columbia University), Jeff Frieden (Columbia University), Reka Juhasz (University of British Columbia), Carolin Pflueger (University of Chicago), and Christoph Trebesch (Kiel).
New paper on using Artificial Intelligence to measure the effect of tariffs, export controls, and sanctions on firms. Geoeconomic pressure—the use of existing economic relationships by governments to achieve geopolitical or economic ends—has become a prominent feature of global power dynamics. This paper introduces a methodology using large language models (LLMs) to systematically extract signals of geoeconomic pressure from large textual corpora. We analyze the ongoing trade war and update the draft at high frequency.
Visit our research page to learn more.
We have prepared a new paper for the 2025 AEA Papers and Proceedings, “The Political Economy of Geoeconomic Power.” Great powers are increasingly using their economic and financial strength for geopolitical aims. This rise of "geoeconomics" has the potential to reshape the international trade and financial system. This paper examines the role of domestic political economy forces in determining a government's ability to project geoeconomic power abroad. We also discuss the role that persuading or coercing foreign governments plays in projecting geoeconomic power around the world.
Visit our research page to learn more.
“Matteo Maggiori explains geoeconomics as powerful nations leveraging trade and finance for influence, citing tools like export controls and sanctions. He highlights the financial sector and semiconductor supply chains as key arenas, noting China and India's efforts to create alternative systems to challenge US dominance. Overuse of geoeconomic power risks fragmentation and the rise of multipolar world.”
[Video of interview (in English) is included.]
“마지오리 교수는 미국과 중국의 최근 갈등을 '지리경제학'이 작용하는 대표적 사례"로 꼽았다. 미국은 금융시스템과 첨단 반도체를 중심으로 중국을 압박하고, 중국은 희토류 등 자원을 가지고 대응하는 등 긴장도가 커졌다는 지적이다.’ 한국의 경우 ‘미국과 중국 모두와 밀접하게 연결돼 압박을 이중으로 받고 있다"고 평가했다.’”
“마테오 마조리 스탠퍼드대 경영대학원 교수는 20일 인터뷰에서 ‘미·중 무역 전쟁 가운데 양국으로부터 한국이 동시에 압박을 받는다는 것은 그만큼 영향력을 행사할 수 있다는 뜻이기도 하다”고 말했다.’ 지경학(geoeconomics) 전문가인 마조리 교수는 서울 강남구 코엑스에서 20일 열린 세계 경제학자 대회(Econometric Society World Congress, 직역하면 ‘계량경제학회 세계 대회’)에서 관세 전쟁이 세계 각 국가와 기업에 미치는 영향을 주제로 논문 발표를 했다.”
“For a chokehold to be effective, a country must have a near-monopoly on supplying a particular good or service, points out Matteo Maggiori of Stanford University. ‘Sanctioning power is non-linear, which means that the difference between controlling 95% and 85% of a market is the difference between whether the targets of sanctions can find alternative suppliers, or not,’ says Mr Maggiori. He notes that whereas tariffs cause firms to increase prices, export controls tend to spur them to invest in alternatives.”
Economists at Stanford, Columbia and Yale used large language models to analyze hundreds of thousands of earnings calls and record how American firms responded to Trump’s tariff announcements. They found that companies were more than five times likelier to say tariffs hurt them than helped them.
“[Albert Hirschman] would not have been surprised by President Donald Trump’s tariffs or indeed China’s own attempts at economic coercion, which include export restrictions on vital inputs, such as rare earths. It is, therefore, a good time to revive the spirit of his inquiries, according to Christopher Clayton of Yale School of Management, Matteo Maggiori of Stanford University and Jesse Schreger of Columbia Business School. They are seeking to apply the modern toolkit of economics to geopolitics. The result is something they call “geoeconomics” (borrowing a term coined by Edward Luttwak, a historian and military strategist, in 1990). Whatever the subject is called, it is inescapable.”
